I hear a lot of people saying the market is going to continue to go down, and I hear a lot of people saying they don’t have a crystal ball and cannot predict what is going to happen. What I can tell you from my over 25 years in the mortgage and real estate industry is that Vancouver Island is its own little micro-economy. Inventory is still very low, rental properties are hard to find and buyers from out East (the rest of the country) are tired of the long, cold winter.
Here are 3 scenarios I see could happen.
The increase in interest rates brings inflation back down.(Baseline)
Inflation is sticky and doesn’t go back down as predicted (Persistent Inflation)
Inflation drops optimistically and rates start dropping sooner than expected.(Optimistic)
Which of these do you think is going to happen?
I was recently on a call with Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist for BC Real Estate Association and we covered these 3 scenarios:
Source: Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist for BC Real Estate Association
What I can say in each of these scenarios is that prices are going to rise again. Worst case scenario we have prices dropping for a few more months. That’s it. Vancouver just reported that the City had a strong February. I am not sure what the news outlets are going to say about that!
Last year properties were selling in the Comox Valley at 105.79% above list price, this year they are selling at 98.60% of the list price (Vancouver Island Real Estate Board). This is not desperate selling. This is properly priced homes for the market we are in. Pricing your home properly is key to selling your home.
Real Estate is a long term investment. It is not about timing the market, it is about TIME IN the market. I am still fighting for my buyers, in multiple offer situations. I am still working with my sellers to get the best offer possible. The market is active and spring is going to be busy. If you are serious about buying or selling, get prepared for GO TIME!